Obama and Democrats are on the defensive. Polling consistently shows voter anger with Washington and passion among Republicans and Republican leaning Independents to throw out incumbents - most of whom are Democrats. Democratic voters show little enthusiasm for the election.

Some 60 Democratic seats in the House are vulnerable and a loss of 40 would deliver it to the Republicans. Since only 1/3 of the Senate is to be elected, the chance of a Republican gain of 11 seats to capture it is unlikely. But, every Democratic seat lost strengthens the power of the Republicans to block Obama Administration appointments and legislation.

The biggest jolt to Democrats this month was the Washington Post/ABC poll of July 13 which has reverberated through the entire political structure. The main conclusion of pundits was that public confidence in the President had reached a new low of 40%. (The polling data itself showed that 50% of the public approved of the way in which the president is doing his job. That, and a little above, is about where his overall approval rating has been in the Post/ABC polling since December 2009.) It is small consolation that the popularity of Republicans in Congress (26%) was even less than that of Democrats (32%). Better news is that for the second straight week Democrats have led Republicans by 4 percentage points among registered voters in a generic congressional ballot.

The Post poll further spooked Democrats in conservative districts and made them flock to the swarm of Republican deficit hawks who long blocked an extension of unemployment insurance. And, it forced the Democratic leadership to peel off a number of economic stimulus additions to unemployment insurance that the White House and the leadership believe necessary to increase the pump priming as the recovery seems to be slowing. It certainly added to obstacles to adoption of any serious climate legislation which has now been laid aside at least until after the election since not a single Republican will break ranks to support it.

It is frustrating to realize that the historic achievements of the first half of the Obama Administration are seen by so much of the electorate as ineffective (the stimulus spending), harmful (the healthcare reform) or useless (financial regulatory reform). Instead, voters are angry that unemployment is still high and that the budget deficit is large and growing. Many have bought into the Republican claim that reducing the deficit by cutting spending is more important than reducing unemployment by increasing it.

The Democratic plan is to show the public the practical benefits that voters are already beginning to get from the Obama reforms: lower credit card charges, barring issuance of credit cards to young people without a parental guarantee, inclusion of children up to 26 in their parents health insurance, the opening of insurance pools for those now uninsurable, ending the practice of canceling insurance of those falling ill and the new "green"jobs created by stimulus funding.

But fate and some stumbles have interfered. The endless BP disaster, disappointing employment figures and the stock market slump have dominated the news. Then, the White House admission that the Republicans could win the House made its Democrats explode with anger. More recently, the distorted right wing portrayal of Shirley Sherrod both embarrassed the Administration for its hair trigger reaction in firing her and blanketed the news media with claims of Obama’s racism which her final vindication could not undo. And now, the classified Afghan document dump by WikiLeak is reopening the divisive debate on the war in Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, the two parties have settled on their strategies to fight the November election.

For Republicans, the election is a referendum on the Obama presidency. Their claim is that it has failed to create jobs, to end home foreclosures and exploded the deficit. It botched the BP oil spill, has not stopped illegal immigration nor gotten rid of illegal immigrants. And, it has greatly over-reached. It rammed through a health care law that the public does not want that will kill jobs and fail to control costs. Its Wall Street reform legislation is another job killer and will stick the taxpayer with another stupendous bailout in the next crisis which it will not forestall. Its consumer protection agency will make it harder for main street Americans to borrow money. It is undermining the armed forces during two wars by forcing our warriors to cohabit with gays and lesbians. Its proposals for cap and trade of carbon emissions are a tax that will kill more jobs and raise prices to consumers. Now, its determination to let the Bush tax cuts expire at the end of the year means a huge tax increase that would further set back our struggling economy. And, while Republican Congressional leaders duck the issue, right wing Republican activists claim that Obama is a racist who hates whites.

Republicans will come up with some sort of platform of things they would do. But, since simple opposition to everything that Obama has proposed or done is working, any commitment to a program of their own would only risk alienating some voters.

For Democrats the election is a choice between the discredited Bush policies and the historic achievements of the Obama Administration. They argue that the Republicans want to turn back the clock to the Bush years when the budget surplus inherited from Clinton was turned into the present deficit. Republicans ran the economy into the ditch. Democrats are getting it out.

Republicans fought health care for all Americans and repeatedly blocked extending unemployment benefits to millions of our unemployed. They let Wall Street and the oil companies make national policy and appointed regulators opposed to regulation. They got us into wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Obama is getting us out. Republicans blocked every Obama proposal for bi-partisan cooperation. They supported immigration reform when Bush proposed it and oppose it when Obama proposes it. They turned our friends around the world against us and heightened conflict with Russia, China and the Islamic population. Obama has reversed that trend and foreign approval of the United States has sharply recovered. Republicans lost faith in Bush because he was unpopular not because of his policies to which they want to return.

Both parties are trying to execute these strategic plans in the rapidly passing three months before the election.

With the enactment of the financial reform bill, the dropping of carbon emissions control legislation and the expected confirmation of Kagan to the Supreme Court, the next iconic issues will be the fate of the Bush tax cuts and the appointment of the first director of the new consumer financial products protection agency.

The Obama Administration wants to let the tax cuts for individuals with an income above $200,000 ($250,000 for families) expire at the end of the year. That would raise taxes for 2% or 3% of Americans. Failure to let upper income taxes revert to their earlier level would add some $2 trillion to our budget deficit. Yet Republican deficit hawks prefer keeping the tax cut to reducing the deficit.

The estate tax (also cut by Bush) lapsed last year but will return at the 55% level on January 1 for estates larger than $1 million. In a concession to the anti-tax forces, Obama would lower the tax on inheritances to 45% and raise the exemption to $3.5 million for individuals and $7 million for couples. Republicans and some conservative Democrats want to retain all the Bush cuts across the board.

Obama believes the public favors letting the taxes on upper income earners return in January.

Elizabeth Warren was a major force in shaping the new consumer financial products protection agency. She is clearly the best qualified to set it up and get it running although there are other highly qualified candidates as well. Warren is catnip to liberals who are pressing the president to name her. Bankers and conservatives are dead set against her since she would actually invoke her powers to regulate. And, since she not only stands for aggressive regulation but also pulls no punches with those who disagree with her, she would have trouble getting confirmed in the Senate where some conservative Democrats would probably oppose her.

Thus, the foreseeable big issues that will influence the outcome in November will hit the Congress when it reconvenes in September. Afghanistan is a wild card.. But, the game plan at this point for Republicans is to frame the election as a vote of no confidence in Obama’s performance and for Democrats to frame it as a choice between turning back to the failed Bush policies or staying the course with a president who has delivered on his promises.

The President is in campaign mode. It behooves Democrats to get behind him. 30

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